This year\u2019s award goes to Chuliang Song<\/strong> for the paper, \u201cRapid monitoring of ecological persistence\u201d published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA. Co-authors on the paper are Benno Simmons<\/strong>, Marie-Jos\u00e9e Fortin<\/strong>, Andrew Gonzalez<\/strong>, Christopher Kaiser-Bunbury,<\/strong> and Serguei Saavedra<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In the paper, Song et al. show it is possible to assess the persistence of whole ecological communities using only small amounts of incomplete field data. To do so, they combine a range of theoretical tools \u2014 structural stability, network theory, statistical physics, and Bayesian analysis \u2014 to approximate the dynamics of large complex systems from their smaller sub-components. The judges were impressed with their creative solution to maximizing the information collected in field surveys and the method\u2019s potential for monitoring ecosystem health and directing conservation actions.<\/p>\n C. Song, B.I. Simmons, M. Fortin, A. Gonzalez, C.N. Kaiser-Bunbury, & S. Saavedra, Rapid monitoring of ecological persistence, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 120 (20) e2211288120, https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1073\/pnas.2211288120 (2023).<\/p>\n Every year, the award is sponsored by a different organization, reflecting a diversity of values and attributes. This year the Theoretical Ecology Section\u00a0devoted the award to novel and unconventional ways of theoretical thinking\u2014what we called\u00a0break-the-mold papers<\/strong>. Departing from mainstream research, break-the-mold papers have the potential to be paradigm shifts in the near future, opening new avenues of work and understanding in theoretical ecology and beyond. Thus, a\u00a0link between the Section and\u00a0Santa Fe Institute Press<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0was a no-brainer.<\/p>\n The 2023 ESA Outstanding paper in theoretical ecology goes to\u00a0Jasper C. Croll<\/strong>\u00a0and collaborator\u00a0Andr\u00e9 M. de Roos<\/strong>\u00a0for their paper \u201cThe regulating effect of growth plasticity on the dynamics of structured populations\u201d published in\u00a0Theoretical Ecology<\/em>. In this paper, the authors shed new light on how the interplay between the environment and individual traits, such as growth and reproduction, can impact the persistence of consumer populations. Specifically, this paper reminds us about the role of differences in plasticity (the difference in individual phenotypes due to the influence of the environment) in shaping age-structured and size-structure driven dynamics. This paper provides an elegant theoretical perspective to integrate life-history traits, energy budgets, population dynamics, and feasibility analysis.<\/p>\n The 2022 award goes to Thomas Koffel<\/strong> and collaborators Tanguy Daufresne<\/strong> and Christopher Klausmeier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In their Ecological Monograph paper<\/a> \u201cFrom competition to facilitation and mutualism: a general theory of the niche\u201d, Koffel et al. have provided a unified theoretical framework of niche concepts. Niche has played a central concept in ecology. However, traditional theories have mostly studied and quantified species niche using negative species interactions. Koffel et al. have extended this framework to positive interactions and proposed new general niche concepts. Beyond its original ideas, this paper also synthesized a large body of work on coexistence, invasion, and environmental dynamics.<\/p>\n Honorable mention for an outstanding paper goes to Jody Reimer and collaborators Jorge Arroyo-Esquivel, Junjie Jiang, Henry Scharf, Elizabeth Wolkovich, Kai Zhu, and Carl Boettiger for their Theoretical Ecology paper<\/a> \u201cNoise can create or erase long transient dynamics.\u201d They demonstrated how noise in a simple model can affect the length of transients and switch the system between alternative states. Their paper unpacked this complex subject by advanced statistical methods and presented their results in concise and elegant writing.<\/p>\n Finally, the Theory Section also wishes to highlight a paper<\/a> by Dan Wieczynski and collaborators Pranav Singla, Adrian Doan, Alexandra Singleton, Ze-Yi Han, Samantha Votzke, Andrea Yammine, and Jean Gibert entitled \u201cLinking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization\u201d published in PNAS. This study uses aquatic microbes to link organismal traits with demography, confirming predictions made by the Metabolic Theory of Ecology. It\u2019s beautifully illustrated and clearly written, and would make a great choice for graduate seminar reading.<\/p>\n The 2021 award goes to Nikunj Goel<\/strong> and collaborators Vishwesha Guttal, Simon Levin, and Carla Staver<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In their AmNat<\/em> paper<\/a> \u201cDispersal Increases the Resilience of Tropical Savanna and Forest Distributions\u201d, they shed light on how the combination of dispersal with bistability can act to determine biome boundaries and predict changes in these boundaries over time.\u00a0 The theory section committee enjoyed how the combination of theory development and empirical data gave insight into an important ecological question.<\/p>\n We had some terrific papers nominated this year, and the committee were enlightened by the many contributions to theoretical ecology that we read. In particular, we would also like to give an honourable mention to Lauren Shoemaker, Allison Barner, Leonora Bittleston and Ashley Teufel for their Ecology Letters paper<\/a> entitled: \u201cQuantifying the relative importance of variation in predation and the environment for species coexistence\u201d. Their paper develops the integration of coexistence theory with trophic interactions.<\/p>\n The 2020 award goes to Ed Tekwa<\/strong> and collaborators Eli Fenichel, Simon Levin, and Malin Pinsky<\/strong>.<\/p>\n In their PNAS<\/em> paper<\/a> \u201cPath-dependent institutions drive alternative stable states in conservation\u201d, the authors use both a new theoretical model and empirical analysis of 217 managed fisheries to demonstrate that ecological and institutional factors can produce historical contingencies which determine dynamics. Their model suggests that, if institutional response rate is slow relative to the ecological response, alternative stable states are possible. Harvest rates form a path-dependent pitchfork bifurcation so that similar institutions may end up in either an overharvesting or conservation stable state. The paper therefore offers a new explanation for the different statuses of fisheries with similar management, and new approaches for switching from overharvesting to conservation.<\/p>\n The 2019 award goes to Bo Zhang<\/strong> and collaborators for their paper entitled \u201cCarrying capacity in a heterogeneous environment with habitat connectivity\u201d published in Ecology Letters<\/em> in 2017 (20: 1118-1128)<\/a>.<\/p>\n This paper uses a delightful mixture of mathematical analysis, numerical computations, and experimental work to understand a fundamental question in spatial population biology: \u201cHow do spatial heterogeneity in environmental factors and movement patterns determine the regional abundance of a population?\u201d The paper builds on a classical, theoretical prediction (Holt 1985 TPB) that diffusive movement into sink habitats can, counter-intuitively, increase regional equilibrium abundance. Extending this classical work, Bo Zhang and her co-authors apply a mixture of analytical and computational approaches to PDE models (and their spatially discrete counterparts) of consumer-resource interactions. Consistent with earlier theory, they demonstrate that diffusive movement of consumers can increase regional equilibrium abundance in spatially heterogeneous environments. However, contrary to predictions of earlier theoretical work, they demonstrate that lower regional equilibrium abundances are achieved in spatially heterogeneous environments than in their homogeneous counterparts. Remarkably, Bo Zhang and her collaborators empirically demonstrate both of these theoretical predictions using yeast metapopulations feeding on the amino acid tryptophan as the renewable resource. The committee and I believe this work will inspire much future work in spatial ecology at the interface of theory and experiment.<\/p>\n The committee also would like to recognize that the important contributions that other applicants for this prize have made to theoretical ecology. Learning about their accomplishments over the past weeks has been simultaneously inspiring and humbling.<\/p>\n The 2018 award goes to Colin T. Kremer<\/strong> and\u00a0Christopher A. Klausmeier<\/strong> for their paper entitled \u201cSpecies packing in\u00a0eco-evolutionary models of seasonally fluctuating environments\u201d\u00a0published in Ecology Letters in 2017 (20: 1158-1168)<\/a>.<\/p>\n This paper examines the effects of species\u2019 trait evolution on\u00a0coexistence under environmental fluctuations and related limiting\u00a0similarity patterns. It finds that many basic expectations are\u00a0resilient to evolution, but also the emergence of unexpected results, We also gave an honorable mention to\u00a0Katherine Scranton\u00a0<\/strong>and Priyanga Amarasekare<\/strong>, for their paper \u201cPredicting phenological shifts in a\u00a0changing climate\u201d published in PNAS in 2017<\/a>.<\/p>\n The 2017 winners are\u00a0Andrew D. Letten<\/strong>, Po-Ju Ke<\/strong>, and Tadashi\u00a0Fukami<\/strong> for their paper entitled \u201cLinking modern coexistence theory and\u00a0contemporary niche theory\u201d published in Ecological Monographs (2017,\u00a087: 161-177)<\/a>.\u00a0This paper synthesizes the two dominant frameworks describing the\u00a0niche\u2019s role in species coexistence: modern coexistence theory and\u00a0contemporary niche theory. Despite shared goals, the compatibility and\u00a0complementarity of these two frameworks has received remarkably little\u00a0attention. The authors demonstrate, for a general consumer-resource\u00a0model, how one can translate the three criteria for species\u00a0coexistence of contemporary niche theory (i.e. resource supply ratio,\u00a0impact niche, and requirement niche) into the stabilizing and\u00a0equalizing processes of modern coexistence theory. The paper is\u00a0written in accessible prose, and draws useful connections with\u00a0empirical work. By presenting the two frameworks side by side, this\u00a0paper clarifies the scope and direction of existing research on these\u00a0two dominant approaches to species coexistence.<\/p>\n We received a number of outstanding nominations for the 2017 award. Thanks to everyone who submitted nominations. The committee enjoyed reading and discussion all of the papers.<\/p>\n The first co-recipient is\u00a0Gyorgy Barabas<\/b>\u00a0and co-authors for their paper entitled \u201cSensitivity analysis of coexistence in ecological communities: theory and application\u201d (Ecology Letters 2014, 17:1479-1494<\/a>).\u00a0 This paper<\/span>\u00a0extends the tools of sensitivity analysis to the community level, and in doing so develops an important new perspective on the analysis of theoretical and applied models. First, it gives a method for assessing extinction risk in communities facing environmental change. Second, much like standard linear stability analysis, it can be used as part of the theoretician\u2019s toolbox that can aid understanding model behavior better. Finally, on the broadest level, it provides a new formulation of the classical concepts of niche differentiation and limiting similarity, one that retains the original intuition behind the terms but avoids some of the pitfalls of earlier approaches.<\/span><\/p>\n The second co-recipient is\u00a0Simon Stump<\/b>\u00a0and\u00a0Peter Chesson\u00a0<\/b>for their paper entitled\u00a0\u201cDistance-responsive predation is not necessary for the Janzen-Connell hypothesis\u201d (Theoretical\u00a0Population Biology 2015, 106:60-70<\/a>). \u00a0<\/span>This paper uses mathematical models to test three of the core claims of the Janzen-Conell hypothesis \u2013 a major hypotheses for explaining tropical biodiversity.\u00a0 Using an elegant site occupancy model, the authors show that each of these claims are problematic.\u00a0 For example, many studies on the Janzen-Connell hypothesis have focused on testing whether predators are distance-responsive, but the authors show that distance-responsive predations are actually less able to promote coexistence than more widely dispersing predators.\u00a0 Additionally, this paper resolves contradictory results in both the theoretical and empirical literature, and suggests ways to improve experimental testing. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n A number of impressive papers were nominated for the prize this year, and the section executive appreciated the opportunity to read and evaluate all of the nominated papers.\u00a0 We would also like to note that one of our officers removed herself from the final decision-making process due to her role as a coauthor on one of the\u00a0papers.\u00a0 The remainder of the section executive felt strongly that this paper should not be overlooked for the award due to her involvement.<\/span><\/p>\n \u00a0G.A. Maciel, F. Lutscher (2013) How individual movement response to habitat edges affects population persistence and spatial spread. American Naturalist 182(1): 42-52 <\/u><\/a><\/p>\n This paper addresses a basic question motivated by ecological dynamics \u2014 how behavior at habitat edges affects population persistence and spatial spread \u2014 and comprehensively presents and analyzes a set of broadly applicable tools for incorporating edge behavior. In doing so, Maciel & Lutscher nicely balance tractable models with biological realism and clearly describe how their modeling insights fit into the existing theoretical and empirical context. In addition to advancing the long-standing theory of spatial population dynamics, the findings clearly contribute to the biological understanding of the effect of a variety of movement behaviors, such as faster movement through unfavorable habitat enhancing population persistence and an intermediate strength of patch-quality-based preference enhancing the rate of population spread, with a strong mechanistic understanding for why these dynamics arise.<\/p>\n We had seventeen outstanding nominees for the best paper award this year; many thanks to everyone who submitted nominations. Please join us in congratulating Gabriel Maciel<\/strong> and Frithjof Lutscher<\/strong> on their achievement.<\/p>\n The winners of the 2014 award for the best paper in theoretical ecology are Jiang Jiang<\/strong> and Don DeAngelis<\/strong>, for their 2013 paper \u201cStrong species-environment feedback shapes plant community assembly along environmental gradients,\u201d published in the journal Ecology and Evolution (3: 4119\u20134128)<\/a>.<\/p>\n In their clearly-written paper, the authors make direct linkages to problems in plant ecology, while building a general theoretical model that addresses a key issue, not just in plant ecology, of feedbacks between organisms and their environment. Through well-designed analyses of an elegant model, they found that \u201cecological engineers\u201d (species that modify the environment to their own benefit) can affect the diversity of the competitive community they inhabit, and that the direction of this effect depends critically on the extent to which the community is closed to immigration and on the spatial heterogeneity of the environment. These novel results should are likely to foster further theoretical research and generate some fine hypotheses that will motivate experimental and field studies.<\/p>\n Please join me in congratulating Jiang and Don!<\/p>\n The Theoretical Ecology Section is pleased to award the 2013 prize for an outstanding theoretical ecology paper to \u201cNitrogen and Phosphorus Limitation over Long-term Ecosystem Development in Terrestrial Ecosystems\u201d by Duncan Menge<\/strong>, Lars Hedin<\/strong>, and Stephen Pacala<\/strong>, published in PLoS One (2012) vol. 7(8) e42045<\/a>.<\/p>\n This paper formulates a mathematical model for looking at nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) dynamics over multiple timescales. Analyzing their model through techniques of timescale separation, the authors determine whether N or P is more likely to limit net primary productivity (NPP) at short, intermediate, and long timescales. While some of their results provide support for already well-established ideas on NPP limitation, others are counterintuitive, thereby nicely demonstrating the importance of quantitative models for understanding dynamics at the level of the ecosystem. Finally, the work is elegant in that it nicely integrates disparate observations into one cohesive framework.<\/p>\n The Theoretical Ecology Section is pleased to award the 2012 prize for an outstanding paper to \u201cComparing the qualitatively different effects of rapidly evolving and rapidly induced defences have on predator-prey interactions\u201d by Michael Cortez<\/b>, published in Ecology Letters (2011) 14:202-209<\/a>.<\/p>\n This paper unifies models of the ecological impacts of plasticity and rapid evolution, and extends these models to acheive general insights about similarities and differences between heritable and non-heritable trait variation. The results were not intuitive; induced defences stabilize or syncrhonize fluctuations (depending on the rate of induction), whereas rapid evolution can lead to a broader range of dynamics. These results were obtained through mathematical innovation, specifically, application of slow-fast theory to make a general analysis tractable.<\/p>\n Congratulations to the authors!<\/p>\n The recipients of the 2011 award are Heather Berkley, Bruce Kendall, Satoshi Mitarai,<\/b> and David Siegel <\/b><\/b>for their paper entitled \u201cTurbulent dispersal promotes species coexistence\u201d, published in Ecology Letters 13:360-371<\/a>.<\/p>\n This paper uses spatially explicit simulations and analytical approximations to demonstrate that, for species with dispersed larvae and sessile adults, stochastic larval dispersal driven by environmental turbulence can result in decorrelated settlement patterns that enable long-term coexistence of competing species. \u00a0The paper demonstrates how the nuanced interplay between species traits and their abiotic environment can drive population-scale processes, and illustrates how multiple sources of variation contribute differently to long-term community dynamics.<\/p>\n Congratulations to the authors!<\/p>\n2023<\/h1>\n
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