Predicted biodiversity loss from disappearing nature is greater when species dispersal is taken into account

by Niels Kerstes, Utrecht University
January 22, 2026

If nature must disappear, sacrificing many small natural areas is more damaging to plant diversity than losing fewer larger ones. This is suggested by a new model study by Utrecht University ecologists Monique de Jager and Edwin Pos, published yesterday in the journal Ecosphere. The study shows that more realistic mathematical models, which account for differences in how plant species disperse, predict a greater loss of plant species following habitat loss than earlier models that ignored these differences.

“Actually, we do not need less nature, we need more nature,” says De Jager. “But if the loss of nature is unavoidable, is it better to fragment what remains or to keep it clustered? This question has long been debated and examined in numerous modeling studies. Some conclude that fragmentation is preferable, others that clustering is better, and some suggest that it makes no difference at all.”

The existing studies are difficult to compare because they focus on different spatial scales, ranging from local to global. “These models also did not account for the different ways plants disperse,” says De Jager. “Some species can spread their seeds over long distances, while others disperse more locally. If you leave these differences out of a model, you miss a large part of reality.”

Keep reading: https://www.uu.nl/en/news/predicted-biodiversity-loss-from-disappearing-nature-is-greater-when-species-dispersal-is-taken-into

Read the Ecosphere paper: https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.70516