Rising Temperatures Threaten Reefs—Study Pinpoints Where Conservation Efforts Are Most Needed
by Mary Dixon, Wildlife Conservation Society
December 23, 2024
New science from WCS has mapped coral reefs across the Western Indian Ocean, uncovering unexpected pockets of climate-resilience that could offer hope for conservation efforts in the region.
By combining AI models with data from 1,000 field studies, researchers have identified reefs that may withstand climate change better than once feared, opening new doors for protecting the most biodiversity-rich ecosystems in the ocean.
“Past models have been coarse and often relied on just a few temperature variables,” said Dr. Tim McClanahan, Director of Science for WCS’s Global Marine Program. “Our model leverages the full capacity of global environmental mapping and machine learning, creating new possibilities for finding resilient reefs that need protection.”
By considering many environmental variables on a small scale, the new model produces a more detailed and varied outlook for coral reefs, challenging more severe predictions from previous models including the 2023 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Under a 1.5°C warming threshold, 70% of reefs were predicted to experience only modest declines (less than 5%) in coral cover and species diversity by 2050.
However, if emissions were to continue unmitigated, coral cover could decline by 40% by mid-century. In WCS’s new model, about 5% of coral reefs have been identified to potentially benefit from changing conditions, suggesting potential refugia where corals could continue to thrive despite warming.
Read the Ecosphere paper: https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.70057