New Metric Identifies At-Risk Mangroves Before They Disappear

by Alex Fox, UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography
April 16, 2026

Scientists from UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the Centro para la Biodiversidad Marina y la Conservación in Mexico have developed a tool that identifies mangrove patches facing the greatest risk of degradation. 

The tool, called the Mangrove Threat Index and described in a new study published in the journal Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, aims to provide an empirical argument for conservation before vulnerable ecosystems are lost rather than after, said the researchers. The index yields a single number that local planners and communities can use to prioritize specific mangrove patches for protection.

Mangroves are coastal forests that buffer shorelines from storms, store carbon and provide nursery habitat for many species of fish. Despite the tremendous intrinsic and economic importance of the ecosystem services that mangroves provide, roughly half of the world’s mangrove forests are at risk of collapse. 

Conservation-minded scientists are often in the position of reporting losses with increasing precision rather than proactively identifying mangroves that face immediate risks from infrastructure, agriculture or urban expansion. Long-term threats such as ocean warming and sea-level rise are captured by climate models, but they don’t account for the pressures driving most mangrove loss today. 

Keep reading: https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/new-metric-identifies-risk-mangroves-they-disappear

Read the Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment paper: https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fee.70041