Understanding Uncertainty, Four Realms at a Time

by the U.S. Geological Survey, Climate Adaptation Science Centers
August 11, 2026

Around the world, sweeping changes to climate, land, water, and ecosystems are creating conditions we have never seen before. Environmental scientists, stewards, and decision makers generally agree that we need to act proactively in the face of these global changes. However, conversations around actionable next steps can stall from uncertainties, such as gaps in knowledge or unknown interactions between drivers of change. To reduce uncertainties, many suggest gathering more data before attempting to pursue new solutions. But with issues as complex as global change, data alone might not be enough to make the future clearer.

In a recent publication, National CASC researchers and partners discuss a more holistic way to understand uncertainty by melding scientific measures with human emotional responses and values. This approach draws on the Four Realms Framework, a tool which highlights the ways in which humans experience and perceive the world through four overlapping realms of perception: Physical (what we observe), Mental (how we think), Emotional (what we feel), and Transcendental (what we connect to in the world beyond ourselves).

Keep reading: https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-adaptation-science-centers/news/understanding-uncertainty-four-realms-a-time

Read the Ecosphere paper: https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.70712